Cash Flow + Reserves
13-week cash forecast explained
A 13-week forecast shows the near-term cash trough before the owner makes payroll, tax, equipment, or distribution decisions.
Executive lens
A useful brief turns the issue into a decision.
Trap
Trap
Checking bank balance instead of looking forward.
Signal
Signal
Current cash
Move
Move
Start with known cash
Rule
Rule
The trough matters more than today's balance.
Why it matters
Checking bank balance instead of looking forward.
Stakes
Cash is the part of the business that punishes vague thinking. Profit can look fine while payroll, taxes, receivables, equipment, and deposits pull cash in different directions.
Why it gets missed
Owners usually look at the bank balance because it is immediate. The balance is real, but it does not explain what has already been promised. In this case, the practical trap is simple: checking bank balance instead of looking forward..
Field pattern
Start with the lowest expected cash point, not today's balance. A decision is safer when the business stays above its floor after payroll, taxes, payables, debt, and planned owner distributions.
Numbers to watch
The metric is useful only when it changes behavior.
Current cash
Starts the forecast from the actual cash position, not a feeling.
Forecast trough
Shows the lowest point ahead, which matters more than today's balance.
Cash floor
Defines the cash level the business should not casually cross without a deliberate reason.
Operating moves
What to make visible before the next decision.
Move 01
Start with known cash
Move 02
Layer receivables and payables
Move 03
Mark the lowest week
Owner questions
Use the brief in a real review.
1
If current cash moved this week, what decision would change?
2
Which person, process, or rule owns start with known cash?
3
What would make this number untrustworthy right now?
4
If nothing changes for 90 days, what gets harder for the owner?
Interactive model
See the principle in numbers
More invoices
+50%
More payroll
+42%
More equipment pressure
+36%
More working capital
+48%
More management load
+45%
Reality check
A 50% sales goal is a 50% operating-system question.
Before chasing the number, decide what has to change.
JGC Hub gives cash a job: operating floor, taxes, growth reserve, debt, distributions, and decisions that depend on the next trough.
Start with the system
Make this visible in the operating rhythm.
The brief explains the idea. JGC Hub gives you the categories, rules, and review cadence to keep it from drifting.